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January 23, 2006
The Coming War with Iran...
I should say more about the current flurry of comment about Iran and its nuclear weapon's program. But I find it very depressing. Charles Krauthammer says
- Instead of being years away from the point of no return for an Iranian bomb, as we were before we allowed Europe to divert anti-proliferation efforts into transparently useless talks, Iran is probably just months away. And now, of course, Iran is run by an even more radical government, led by a president who fervently believes in the imminence of the apocalypse.
Ah, success. Having delayed two years, we now have to deal with a set of fanatical Islamists that we know in advance will not be deterred from pursuing nuclear weapons by any sanctions.
Even if we could get real sanctions. Which we will not. The last remaining months before Iran goes nuclear are about to be frittered away in pursuit of this newest placebo.
First, because Russia and China will threaten to veto any serious sanctions. The Chinese in particular have secured in Iran a source of oil and gas outside the American sphere to feed their growing economy and are quite happy geopolitically to support a rogue power that -- like North Korea -- threatens, distracts and diminishes the power of China's chief global rival, the United States.
Second, because the Europeans have no appetite for real sanctions either. A travel ban on Iranian leaders would be a joke; they don't travel anyway. A cutoff of investment and high-tech trade from Europe would be a minor irritant to a country of 70 million people with the second largest oil reserves in the world and with oil at $60 a barrel. North Korea tolerated 2 million dead from starvation to get its nuclear weapons. Iran will tolerate a shortage of flat-screen TVs.
The only sanctions that might conceivably have any effect would be a boycott of Iranian oil. No one is even talking about that because no one can bear the thought of the oil shock that will instantly follow taking 4.2 million barrels a day off the market.
Indeed, the threat here works in reverse. It is the Iranians who have the world over a barrel. On Jan. 15, Iran's economy minister warned that Iran would retaliate for any sanctions by cutting its exports to ``raise oil prices beyond levels the West expects.'' A full cutoff could bring $100 oil and plunge the world into economic crisis.
Which is one of the reasons the Europeans are so mortified by the very thought of a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. The problem is not just that they are spread out and hardened, making them difficult to find and to damage sufficiently to seriously set back Iran's program.
The problem that mortifies the Europeans is what Iran might do after such an attack -- not just cut off its own oil exports but shut down the Strait of Hormuz (through which nearly half of the world's export oil passes) by firing missiles at tankers or scuttling its own vessels to make the strait impassable. It would require an international armada led by the United States to break such a blockade.
Such consequences -- serious economic disruption and possible naval action -- are something a cocooned, aging, post-historic Europe cannot even contemplate. Which is why the Europeans have had their heads in the sand for two years. And why they will spend the little time remaining -- before a group of apocalyptic madmen go nuclear -- putting their heads back in the sand. And congratulating themselves on allied solidarity as they do so in unison.
- In my predictions for 2006 I said that Iran would obtain a nuclear weapon in 2006 and we wouldn’t do much about it. I’m sticking to that.
Over the Christmas holidays I had a conversation on the subject of Iran with my very bright brother-in-law in which I was reminded that lots of people make little distinction among things that are physically impossible (things we can’t do), things that are politically impossible (things that are hard to do), things we shouldn’t do, and things we don’t want to do. They are different and there are quite a few things we can do about Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, it’s not completely clear (at least to me) that we should do any of them, and not one of them is particularly palatable.
Joe Katzman at Winds of Change.net says
- I personally believe that we're very likely to see at least 10 million dead in the Middle East within the next two decades, with an upper limit near 100 million. I do not believe pre-emptive action will be taken against Iran. I do, however, believe the extremist mullahs in Iran mean exactly what they say. They are steeped in an ideology that believes suicide/murder to be the holiest and most moral act possible. They have been diligent in laying strategic plans for an offensive Islamic War against Israel, America and the West. Plans backed by 25 years of action, and stated no less clearly than Mein Kampf. I believe that Ahmedinajad's talk of 12th Imam end-times and halos around his head at the UN aren't the ravings of an isolated nut, simply an unusually public (and unusually noticed) expression of beliefs that are close to mainstream within their ruling class. That class of "true believer" imams and revolutionary guard types have been quietly consolidating their control over all sectors of Iranian society over the last few months, and I do not believe anyone in the world today has both the will and the capability to stop them.
As I say, pretty depressing.
Posted by rakhier at 07:04 PM | Comments (0)
January 03, 2006
Things I No Longer Believe in...
I went through a mental list of things I no longer believe in the other night:
- I used to think Green Peace was doing good things - Sorry. Green Peace is a crazy organization which wastes its time and money protesting things that either are wrong (such as opposition to nuclear power) or are close to pointless (the best way to get rid of old oil platforms).
- I used to think the American Communist party was independent from the Soviet Union. No, it turns out it really was under the control of the Soviet Union. All their statements to the contrary were lies.
- I used to think Mao's government was at least decent. Now I think the Chinese government under Chairman Mao was far from being benign or even average. Like every other Communist government it was a failure economically and evil in its behavior towards its own citizens.
- I used to think all politicians were evil. Now I realize many politicians in the US are good. Politicians have the impossible job of resolving disputes which are at core, unresolvable. Good politicians try hard to come up with solutions that make as many people as possible happy. The fact that they fail is not a reflection on them so much as it reflects the fact that no good solutions are possible.
- I used to think the people, on average were stupid and not trustworthy and that educated elites should make important decisions. Now I think that the people, on average, are smarter and make better decisions than a small group of highly educated individuals. In other words: I longer trust elites, but I trust democracies. Linux, Firefox, and the Wikipedia are living proof that large groups of people can do better work than smaller groups of experts who are paid to do a good job. Not always, but often. Bottom line: democracies work, dictatorships don't.
Posted by rakhier at 11:14 AM | Comments (0)
Spawl - Its a Constant Feature of Cities
The idea that spawl (the expansion of cities out into the surrounding countryside) is a feature only of modern American cities, is false. Sorry. All cities sprawl when they aren't under threat from invasion or geographically constrained. Read the short comment by Michael Barone on Sprawl here.
- It appears that all cities–at least all cities in the industrialized western world–have experienced a dispersal of population from the center to a lower-density periphery. In other words, sprawl is universal... Most American anti-sprawl reformers today believe that sprawl is a recent and peculiarly American phenomenon caused by specific technological innovations like the automobile and by government policies like single-use zoning or the mortgage-interest deduction on the federal income tax,' Bruegmann writes. 'It is important for them to believe this because if sprawl turned out to be a long-standing feature of urban development worldwide, it would suggest that stopping it involves something much more fundamental than correcting some poor American land-use policy.
Posted by rakhier at 11:09 AM | Comments (0)
A virus that works simply by viewing an image... sigh
At one time in my younger days I would have said this was impossible but it turns out its real. You can get infected by a virus simply by viewing a file. Here is a link to the entry on the F-Secure web site which talks about the problem.
For the technically minded the vulnerability has to do with a feature Microsoft put into their WMF format. The feature was a piece of code that could be embeded into a WMF file. The function was designed to be called by Windows if a print job needed to be canceled during spooling. Sadly, the feature can be (and now IS being) exploited to hack into other people's systems.
This is an incredibly easy and nearly unstopable virus. Sigh.
The initial work-around can be found at www.hexblog.com.
Posted by rakhier at 10:45 AM | Comments (0)
The Grand List Of Console Role Playing Game Clichés
This list is derived from 20+ years of game designers creating games - the same games - over and over. Its very funny (and a bit sad) that I know many of these from first hand experience. These are just a few of the many rules -
- Just Nod Your Head And Smile - No matter how big that big-ass sword is, you won't stand out in a crowd. Nobody ever crosses the street to avoid you or seems to be especially shocked or alarmed when a heavily armed gang bursts into their house during dinner, rummages through their posessions, and demands to know if they've seen a black-caped man. People can get used to anything, apparently. (All but Fallout 1 and 2)
- Nostradamus Rule - All legends are 100% accurate. All rumors are entirely factual. All prophecies will come true, and not just someday but almost immediately. (All Pokemon games)
- Zelda's Axiom - Whenever somebody tells you about "the five ancient talismans" or "the nine legendary crystals" or whatever, you can be quite confident that Saving the World will require you to go out and find every last one of them. (All)
- Second Law of Travel - There will be only one of any non-trivial type of vehicle in the entire world. Thus, only one ocean-capable steamboat, only one airship, and so forth. Massive facilities will have been constructed all over the world to service this one vehicle. (Final Fantasy X)
- Arbor Day Rule - At some point, you're going to have to talk to a tree and do what it says. (All)
- Principle of Archaeological Convenience - Every ancient machine you find will work perfectly the first time you try to use it and every time thereafter. Even if its city got blasted into ruins and the machine was then sunk to the bottom of the sea and buried in mud for ten thousand years, it'll still work fine. The unfortunate corollary to this rule is that ancient guardian creatures will also turn out to be working perfectly when you try to filch their stuff. (All but Fallout)
- Adam Smith's Revenge - By the end of the game you are renowned everywhere as the Legendary Heroes, every surviving government and authority figure has rallied behind you, the fate of the world is obviously hanging in the balance, and out of nowhere random passers-by give you a pat on the back and heartfelt good luck wishes. However, shopkeepers won't even give you a discount, much less free supplies for the final battle with evil. (All)
- "So, Andross, you reveal your true form!" - You will have to kill the evil villain at least twice at the end of the game. First the villain will look like a person or some creature and be rather easy to kill. Then he will grow to about 50 times the hero's size and be much harder to kill. (Baldur's Gate 2)
- Know Your Audience (Vyse Rule) - Every woman in the game will find the male lead incredibly attractive. (All)
Posted by rakhier at 09:25 AM | Comments (0)